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If the Golden State Warriors win tonight, and go on to crush Cleveland in the NBA Finals, let's remember what it felt like in the first quarter of Game 6 -- or before we knew the severity of Chris Paul's hamstring injury. A Golden State title will not stand as proof of its own inevitability.

Injuries happen, to stars and key role players. New superteams emerge. Core players age, late-round draft picks don't pay off in time, ring-chasers calcify, natural tensions between star and system plunge teams into a two-game haze at the worst time. The Miami Heat (semi-jokingly) promised five, six, seven titles after gathering three superstars, and at their highest highs, those promises didn't seem outlandish. They came very close to winning one in four seasons together.

If Golden State wins five more games, the most important variable in that happening may well have been Paul's injury.
It seems they are using Klay Thompson more as the screener in pick-and-rolls. The data shows they aren't.
By Kevin Manahan kmanahan@njadvancemedia.com,
NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

With the best of seven series tied 3-3, the Golden State Warriors meet the Houston Rockets in a deciding Game 7 of the NBA's Western Conference Finals on Monday, May 28, 2018 (5/28/18) at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

The winner advances to the NBA Finals to meet the Cleveland Cavaliers, winners of the Eastern Conference Finals over the Boston Celtics.

Here's what you need to know:

Who: Warriors vs. Rockets

What: Game 7, Western Conference Finals

When: Monday, May 28, 2018

Where: Toyota Center, Houston

Time: 9 p.m. Eastern

TV: TNT

Livestream: TNTdrama

Line: Warriors -5.5

And that is what makes the stakes so high tonight for them. They are set up to be in the Finals for the next three or four seasons, but nothing is guaranteed. Their four stars are either 30 years old or approaching it. The biggest tax bill in NBA history is coming.

Golden State should win at least one more title after this season. Its four stars are that good. But those four stars are (mostly) healthy now, and the Houston Rockets had them wobbling until their own star -- their second of two -- got hurt. Even without Andre Iguodala, Golden State has four of the consensus-top-20 (at worst) players, and two of the consensus top five. They still have a talent advantage over everyone. If that advantage isn't enough to vanquish everyone without facing elimination, then perhaps this whole winning-multiple-titles thing is as hard as Steve Kerr has warned. Perhaps we were all wrong.

Before you shout that those four haven't played their best in this series, individually or together, and that if they had, this would have ended a 4-1 whitewash, know that is the point: Ruts happen.

For Golden State to cement its place as one of the greatest teams ever, it might need this game, and this championship. Two titles in four years, with this talent, would count as a disappointment. Lose this season, and Golden State would need a couple more titles to join the pantheon. Win three of four, and you're there.

Paul's injury wouldn't change that. There are no asterisks for a championship. They are all hard. Injuries play a role in deciding all of them. It would make a title less emphatic, less memorable, less dominant, but it would still count.

The stakes are high for the Rockets, too. They could beat Cleveland, even without Paul. Nothing guarantees they will ever be five wins from the title again in the Harden era. But they are severely disadvantaged without the Point God.

Still, they have proven their mettle. Harden hasn't shot well from deep for much of this series, but he just keeps coming. He has battled on defense since Game 1. His step-back 3-pointer makes him unguardable. He inspires more fear with the ball in his hands than anyone but LeBron.

If a series-clinching buzzer-beater over the defending-champion Spurs somehow wasn't enough to kill the notion that Paul shrinks in the playoffs, this series -- and this run to a place he had never been -- should. He destroyed the Jazz with the same kind of crunch-time daggers he made so often for both the Hornets and Clippers in piling up a top-10 all-time postseason Player Efficiency Rating. (Some fans don't seem to remember those shots. The Grizzlies do. The Spurs do. Kobe Bryant remembers Paul's undermanned Hornets tying their 2011 first-round series 2-2, entirely because Paul had the game on a string.) He carried Houston across the finish line in Games 4 and 5, with contortionist, second-half shot-making in the latter.

Paul has never been the best player on a title team. How many players in history have? He suffered one epic, postseason meltdown (Oklahoma City, 2014) and participated in another (Clippers-Rockets, 2015). Collapses befall every modern star who earns enough big moments, save Michael Jordan.

Golden State, with Durant, entered this series 24-3 in the playoffs. Houston pushed the Warriors to where only their best was enough. The Warriors reached that level over the final three quarters of Game 6, and they might need to approach it again tonight.

Their performance did not represent some sea change from Durant iso-ball to Warriors nirvana. They tossed 276 passes, two dozen short of Kerr's stated goal and just seven more than their average for the series entering Game 6, per NBA.com. They set 35 ball screens for Curry, five fewer than in Game 5 and only one more than in Game 4, per Second Spectrum tracking data. Curry's touches and time of possession were almost unchanged from those two losses. They pushed pace, especially after Houston's live-ball turnovers, but the game featured just shy of 200 possessions -- right around the series average.


When the Golden State Warriors lost Game 5 of the Western Conference finals to the Rockets on Thursday night to send them to the brink of elimination they vowed to be back in Houston for Game 7.

After a resounding win in Game 6 that's exactly where the defending champions are, preparing for a winner-take-all game Monday night for a spot in the NBA Finals.

"It's going to be fun," Stephen Curry said. "It's what you play for, to be in a situation where you're one win away from going to the finals. Pressure both ways because of how big the moment is, and you've got to want it."

The Warriors trailed by as many as 17 points in the first half Saturday night before using a splendid second half to roll to a 115-86 victory. Curry knows that if the Warriors hope to return to the finals for the fourth straight year they'll have to get off to a better start in Game 7.

"I guarantee if we start the game out like we did (Saturday) and they jump out to the lead, it's going to be 10 times harder to make it a game," Curry said. "So for us that's our challenge to have the same mentality we had for the last 36 minutes of (Game 6) and bring that from the jump in Game 7."

Kevin Durant is excited about helping the Warriors return to the finals, but he got a little confused on when Game 7 was on Saturday night.

"I can't wait 'til Tuesday," Durant said.

Curry quickly jumped in to correct his teammate.

"Monday," he said. "Please don't miss a game."

Durant ran seven isolations after he ran 11 and 13 in the prior two games, per Second Spectrum. That gap matters. It does not amount to a philosophical 180.

But there was something different about Golden State's alchemy Saturday -- something beyond shot-making. The Warriors moved more away from the ball, and they did it with both urgency and better timing.

With a spot in the NBA Finals up for grabs, the Houston Rockets will play host to the Golden State Warriors in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals at 9 p.m. ET Monday. Golden State opened as a five-point favorite and now is laying six. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has dipped from an opening of 210 to 209.

Before picking either side, you need to read what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say. Oh, who specializes in advanced statistical analyses and sports projections, is on a stellar 18-12 run with selections involving the Rockets. We can tell you he's expecting a high-scoring game and is leaning heavily toward the over.

He's well aware that the under is 7-2 in Golden State's last nine games played in Houston, and the Rockets are 4-0 against the spread in their previous four contests following a straight-up loss. Now, Oh has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Game 7 of Golden State vs. Houston and locked in his pick.

Oh is not expecting Chris Paul to play a major role in Monday's game, but he does foresee Rockets Eric Gordon and Gerald Green getting extended time. And Oh's simulations indicate Kevin Durant shouldering more scoring responsibility for the Warriors.

The Rockets can cover the spread if they don't allow the gravity of a Game 7 to get into their heads, especially if they trail early. Houston led by 17 at the end of the first period of Game 6 and then sputtered to a 29-point loss by scoring only 25 second-half points. After a 65-win regular season, anything short of an NBA Finals appearance will seem like a wasted opportunity. Houston needs to stay in rhythm, and more importantly, execute an offensive scheme instead of setting up isolations for James Harden.

The Warriors have plenty of experience performing in pressure-packed Game 7s and thrive in these conditions. They find themselves road favorites in an arena where Houston is 41-9 this season. Golden State shot 19 free throws in Game 6, and Durant attempted 14 of them. If the Warriors show some patience and work the ball into the lane, they should feast from the free-throw line.

Oh has evaluated all this and has also identified a crucial X-factor you're not thinking about that that will determine the point-spread winner.